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Donald Trump's proposed tariffs, including a 10% tax on imports, are expected to burden American consumers, costing middle-class households over $2,600 annually and leading to a loss of prosperity. While intended to boost domestic production and jobs, historical evidence suggests that tariffs often result in high costs for minimal job creation, with indirect effects harming other industries reliant on imported materials.
Chinese stimulus measures are seen as a positive yet modest step to revitalize the economy, with the People's Bank of China recently cutting lending rates. UBS has raised its GDP forecast for China to 4.8%, still below the government's 5% target, while highlighting ongoing challenges in the property sector and manufacturing overcapacity. Analysts recommend a tactical overweight in Chinese equities, citing their value and improving earnings revisions, while expressing caution towards luxury stocks and US consumer brands exposed to China's economic issues.
JiangSu WuZhong Pharmaceutical Development Co., Ltd. reported a significant increase in earnings for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, with sales reaching CNY 1,647.31 million, up from CNY 1,503.35 million the previous year. Net income rose to CNY 45.08 million, compared to CNY 10.95 million a year ago, resulting in basic and diluted earnings per share from continuing operations of CNY 0.063, up from CNY 0.015.
China has confirmed a shift towards a more accommodative policy stance, though the specifics of the stimulus remain unclear. While local government bond issuance aims to stabilize the property market, concerns about policy execution and limited measures to boost consumption contribute to market volatility. Investors are advised to maintain a Neutral view on China equities while considering exposure to preferred sectors.
The global 5G in healthcare market is projected to grow from USD 4.90 billion in 2023 to USD 59.90 billion by 2031, driven by advancements in telehealth, robotic surgery, and IoT technologies. North America leads the market, with significant contributions from connected ambulances and healthcare providers, fueled by increasing demand for efficient data transfer and government initiatives. The sector is witnessing rapid innovation, enhancing patient care and operational efficiency.
The U.S. economy shows signs of slowing, prompting the Fed to cut rates, while Europe faces weaker growth and potential further easing from the ECB. In China, recent stimulus measures aim to stabilize growth, particularly in the real estate sector, enhancing investment opportunities in Greater China bonds. Emerging markets are also poised for improvement, supported by attractive valuations and less restrictive monetary policies.
Boeing has made a new offer to end the ongoing strike, proposing a 35% pay rise over four years, a $7,000 bonus, and increased pension contributions, but without continuing the old pension plan. Meanwhile, UBS is selling its 50% stake in Swisscard to American Express as part of its portfolio streamlining following the Credit Suisse acquisition. In economic news, the People's Bank of China has unexpectedly cut the Loan Prime Rate to stimulate the slowing economy.
German producer prices are expected to remain in deflation, reinforcing expectations for further ECB rate cuts. In China, the central bank has lowered mortgage reference rates, signaling support for the economy, though concerns about domestic demand persist. Meanwhile, uncertainty surrounds U.S. Federal Reserve policy as the election season intensifies, with economic perceptions diverging from reality.
Emerging market stocks are gaining favor as lower U.S. interest rates and increased Chinese stimulus create a more favorable global environment, according to UBS analysts. Asian markets, particularly Taiwan, are expected to benefit from the AI boom, while Latin America and South Africa may also see positive impacts from these conditions. However, risks such as a strong dollar, geopolitical tensions, and uncertain Chinese stimulus measures could pose challenges for these markets.
Emerging market equities are gaining favor due to lower US interest rates and China's recovery, with UBS highlighting Asian markets, particularly Taiwan, as prime beneficiaries of the AI boom. However, risks such as a strong dollar and geopolitical tensions remain. China's recent aggressive stimulus measures have boosted its equities, though concerns about their effectiveness linger.
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